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The Roemer Report On-Line, Feb 2001

OUTLOOK FOR '01: What kind of year will 2001 turn out to be for trucking? At the 12th annual Transport Topics Management Outlook Forum, held in December, a panel of experts came up with these predictions: (1) A slower economy may help trucking. Moderate economic growth could actually help revive trucking stock prices. (2) The price of crude oil will drop. A Bear Stearns report predicts a decline in the price of crude oil combined with increased global production and less demand will restore the price of crude oil to around $18 per barrel by the end of the year. The current price is about $32 per barrel. One expert explained that technology advances and increased access to oil-producing areas have resulted in greater production. Because oil production exceeds current demand, "it is just a question of time before inventories build and prices correct," states the report. (3) Freight rates will remain flat. Demand for truckload carriers is good, said one expert. "Equipment is staying loaded, but I don't think you've seen the real pressures that you've seen in the past few years. So if this is indicative of what 2001 is going to be like, I think you're going to see a relatively stable environment." (4) LTL carriers can expect a good year. According to a Bear Stearns survey, 80 percent of shippers say they expect to pay more for LTL services this year, even if the economy slows. The boom in LTL carriage, as well as regional truckload, is attributed to shippers requiring quick delivery of goods to market. (5) Freight-hauling capacity will not be in jeopardy. The high price of diesel fuel is expected to contribute to a sharp rise in bankruptcies, especially among owner-operators. But many owner-operators who lose their trucks will simply become company drivers and may, in fact, help ease the driver shortage.

LIFE IS SHORT-ESPECIALLY FOR TRUCKERS: While the average American man lives to be 76 years old, the age expectancy drops drastically for truck drivers. The typical male trucker can expect to live to age 61, according to Dr. Martin Moore-Ede, a Toronto researcher. The reason, perhaps predictably, boils down to lifestyle. U.S. truck drivers typically eat poorly, lack exercise, and tend to smoke. Making unhealthy eating choices alone can cause chronic diseases like high blood pressure, high blood cholesterol, heart disease, stroke, diabetes, arthritis, and certain types of cancer; smoking can lead to stroke, heart attack, bronchitis, or emphysema. But with constant vigilance and a committed effort, truck drivers can lead healthier lives. Here's what they must do: (1) Eat better. Not only do fatty foods contribute to health problems, but they also contribute to fatigue. One dietician recommends following her "plate concept." Three-fourths of the food on the plate should be vegetables, fruits, and grains, while the remaining fourth should be meat, poultry, or fish. Remember that each meal should provide fuel for your body for about four hours. (2) Stop smoking. Fifty-four percent of truck drivers smoke, compared to less than 20 percent of the adult male population. Like any other addiction, stopping smoking requires professional help. (3) Exercise. Considering their schedules, exercise can be especially difficult for truck drivers, but it is not impossible. Like other adults leading sedentary lives, truckers should start small and build from there. Walk five minutes daily, for example, and increase the amount of time gradually.

A FRESH LOOK AT OZONE: For years, trucks and other vehicles have been singled out as the responsible parties for ozone pollution. But more recent studies indicate power plants are the primary culprit in the ozone problem. In fact, trucks and vehicles are "cleaner" than ever when it comes to emitting volatile organic compounds (VOCs), yet the ozone levels aren't dropping. Since the 1960s, scientist believed VOCs, particularly hydrocarbons from vehicles, had the most significant impact on the creation of ozone. Little was known about the impact of nitrous oxide on ozone pollution, and, consequently, little was done to control the nitrous oxide emitted from coal-burning plants. Over the past decade, however, scientists have reached a different conclusion. Ozone has some unique chemical reactions. In some instances, VOCs control ozone formation, but in many more instances, nitrogen oxide is primarily responsible for ozone. Scientists now believe ozone pollution is more a result of nitrogen oxide than vehicle emissions. Industry experts are therefore recommending that more stringent controls be created for power-plant pollution to significantly decrease the levels of ozone.

A LOOK AT DRIVER PAY: With high fuel costs and the possibility of a slowing economy, driver pay is not a pressing issue for most carriers. Still, the editor of the National Survey of Driver Wages voiced concern over companies that fail to "manage their driverforce well." In comments at a recent forum, David Goodson said the ability to manage drivers and control turnover is the "biggest single factor (that will) define the winners and losers of the future." According to Goodson, whose business involves tracking driver compensation, as much as a $15,000-a-year difference in profits can exist between a good driver and a poor one. The biggest difference comes from the number of miles a driver covers. While good drivers may travel as much as 12,000 to 13,000 miles a month, less competent drivers are lucky to get 8,000 miles, says Goodson. Likewise, good drivers can get 6.5 to 7 miles per gallon of fuel, while their less competent counterparts get around 5 miles per gallon. Good drivers also are better at taking the shortest route to reach their destination. All tolled, these factors can make a tremendous difference in the company's bottom line. Most fleets make on average only $10,000 to $12,000 profit per tractor per year, according to Goodson. And that's why he believes carriers should work extra hard to keep good drivers happy.

FATIGUE-MONITORING DEVICES HAVE A WAY TO GO: The effectiveness of devices used to monitor driver fatigue remains unproven, according to an Australian study. And what's more, say the researchers, the makers of fatigue-monitoring technology have neglected to provide sound evidence supporting their claims that the devices can detect, prevent, and control fatigue among drivers. Examining a variety of devices that assess driver alertness, the team of researchers predicted that once proven effective, some fatigue-monitoring technologies will eventually play an important role in managing driver fatigue. But say the researchers, the devices should not be used as the sole means of monitoring driver fatigue; rather, they should be part of a comprehensive fatigue management program, which also includes intensive training for companies, drivers, and dispatchers on how to construct a work schedule and how to identify and monitor fatigue. "What's required is a system that can judge fatigue better than drivers," said one researcher. "That's a tall order since there are many causes of fatigue." One researcher warned that companies, dispatchers, and drivers should not rely too much on fatigue-monitoring devices, thinking, "We have bought a device and put it in the truck, and this will manage fatigue." As difficult as it may be, truck drivers need to develop a "personal sleep policy." But before they can do that, they should be educated on circadian rhythms so they can use them to their advantage, says the researcher.

IN COMPLIANCE WITH HOS: Regulation compliance is probably one of the least favorite tasks of trucking companies, but at the same time, it's also one of their most important responsibilities. Perhaps one of the most difficult regulations carriers must comply with today is the hours of service (HOS) standard. Achieving HOS compliance may initially be time consuming, and even confusing, so here are a few suggestions: (1) Focus on monitoring. Carriers should concentrate on monitoring all driver logs to make sure compliance is achieved. Many carriers use some form of technology, such as scanners, to check for compliance. (2) Conduct audits. Internal audits can help carriers avoid noncompliance problems and an audit by the Department of Transportation. Many companies choose to use outside entities to audit their logs and files to ensure they are meeting compliance standards. (3) Deal with problems promptly. As soon as an HOS compliance problem arises, the carrier should initiate some form of driver counseling. Some carriers issue compliance letters that outline the problems to offending drivers. Drivers must sign the letter indicating they will work on correcting the problems. (4) Focus on education. HOS regulations may be confusing to some drivers. The carrier is ultimately responsible for educating drivers on the correct way to complete HOS logs. Therefore, trucking companies should invest time and dollars in HOS training.

CALL ME: E-mail has become the communication vehicle of choice for many American workers, but is it a boon or bust when it comes to productivity and customer relations? Many workers, particularly managers and executives, have become overwhelmed by the number of e-mail messages they receive each day. The average corporate e-mail user receives 30 messages a day, an increase of 50 percent since just last year. That's expected to increase 35 to 50 percent next year, and by 2002, employees may spend up to four hours a day just reading e-mail. E-mail seems to be a self-generating vehicle, with more e-mails created for every e-mail an employee receives and responds to. Managers complain that they often receive unnecessary e-mails which employees have copied to them. That means more time spent opening and reading messages they don't really need to see. In addition, e-mail messages often tend to be on the wordy side, so although an employee is foregoing a phone conversation, that conversation may have been much more succinct and productive. E-mails also remove face-to-face conversations, making tasks and business relationships more impersonal. Communication experts recommend that managers limit their use of e-mail for the most efficient communication, such as research articles, spreadsheet data, or minutes regarding a recent meeting. And when you want to inspire or motivate employees, experts advise, do it the old-fashioned way-talk to them.

Start by doing what's necessary, then what's possible, and suddenly you are doing the impossible.
-St. Francis of Assisi